Graham Trails in South Carolina Senate Race as Debate Performance Draws Scrutiny

The race for South Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat has narrowed into a statistical tie, a sharp reversal from the projected Republican victory expected six months ago. A survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College in October found the contest to be too close to call, upending the political status quo in a state that has elected two Republican senators since 1998.

The uncertainty stems from the sudden death of incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham in July. His sister, Darline Graham, was appointed by Governor Henry McMaster to finish the term. The siblings were close, with Lindsey helping to raise Darline after their parents died young. Darline Graham, a political novice, surprised observers by entering a full six-year race. A snap primary held just one month after her brother’s death featured several prominent state politicians.

President Donald Trump has campaigned twice for Graham in the final weeks before the election. He views Lindsey Graham as an ally in his second term, specifically regarding the war with Iran. However, this presidential backing has complicated the field. It has alienated some independent voters and frustrated supporters of Representative Ralph Norman. Norman criticized the President’s interference in a state-level decision. Both groups expressed concern over Graham’s lack of experience and the prospect of a political dynasty.

Graham’s inexperience became apparent during a primary debate. When asked about U.S. national security interests in Taiwan and the South China Sea, she struggled to provide a clear answer. She admitted that national security was not her specialty. In response, national Republican groups have sent additional financial resources to South Carolina to support her campaign, even as party members maintain confidence that they will retain the seat.

Democrat Annie Andrews won her primary before Lindsey Graham’s death. She has campaigned for over a year and gained visibility from visits by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Senator Mark Kelly. South Carolina is first on the 2028 Democratic presidential nominating calendar. Andrews has run an independent campaign focused on economic issues. She portrays Graham as part of a Washington establishment that prioritizes its own interests over local residents.

The candidates met for their only general election debate last month. They exchanged criticism regarding the economy, the war with Iran, and artificial intelligence. Much of the debate centered on their relative qualifications. Andrews, who challenged Representative Nancy Mace in 2022, has not held office or run a statewide campaign. Graham defended her candidacy by noting she kept her maiden name to honor her parents, calling the topic a tragic memory.

Historical data suggests caution despite the tight polling. In 2020, polls showed a tight contest, yet Lindsey Graham won his final reelection by a ten-point margin. That election was the state’s most expensive. Since 1998, Republicans have held both Senate seats. The state has only one Democrat in the U.S. House, Jim Clyburn. Straight-ticket voting allows voters to select all candidates from one party. Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates are also on the general election ballot.