Analysts predict third U.S. Iran war phase will target Gulf energy after Nov. 3 vote
Over 7,000 dead in Iran and 4,000 in Lebanon as experts warn a post-election conflict will hit infrastructure and raise energy costs.
By Natalia Costa ·
U.S. and Israeli military planners are expected to resume operations against Iran immediately after the November 3 midterm elections, according to regional security analysts. A third round of fighting is projected to be more destructive than previous phases, with specific threats to Gulf energy infrastructure and civilian communications lines.
Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed war is almost inevitable. He noted that President Donald Trump faces only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. Citrinowicz expects the next phase to strike energy facilities and subsea internet cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also predicted limited Iranian ground attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain to damage the U.S. economy.
The current conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, followed by a second wave in February that targeted senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since the summer truce collapsed, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran has attacked commercial shipping. These actions have increased global energy costs. President Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the vote, a claim supported by a report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War.
Diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and Qatar have stalled. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that Iran may rely on proxies in Yemen and Lebanon to strike airports and other soft economic targets. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that Trump lacks a clear objective and that military pressure alone will not force capitulation. He said diplomacy remains possible but requires a limited exit strategy.
The human toll includes more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, over 4,000 in Lebanon, and 21 U.S. service members. Additional fatalities have been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, though approval from Trump is pending. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces a close election in the coming days, has spoken of finishing the job against the Iranian regime.
Citrinowicz suggested that a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculation might combine with an Iranian event that Netanyahu inflates, leading to an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour countered that Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic path forward.
