Brazil's Work Shift Decides Presidential Race

The political identity of Brazil's working class has shifted under the surface of this week's presidential run-off.

In Osasco, a former industrial hub now dubbed the Silicon Valley of São Paulo, the physical landscape tells a clear story. Closed factories have given way to shopping malls and delivery app offices. This municipality supported left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022. However, it turned to right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round held this month. Bolsonaro won the national first round, continuing a historical trend where every winner since 1989 has secured the presidency.

Gilberto Almazan, a leader of a metalworkers' union in Osasco, describes the anxiety surrounding this change. He notes that metal, chemical, and textile factories have vanished, replaced by five new malls. He characterizes the traditional union movement that helped elect Lula as stuck in the Middle Ages. Many Brazilians now work as drivers, food couriers, or small traders. Almazan calls this trend Uber-isation, arguing that these workers prioritize freedom and flexibility over the collective welfare models Lula has traditionally championed.

Richard Lapper, a biographer of both major candidates, explains that Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early. This timing makes the current economic shifts feel particularly sharp. Lapper describes Lula as a victim of his own success. Unemployment has reached record lows, and Brazil was removed from the UN Hunger Map under Lula's current term. Yet a crisis of expectations persists. Citizens feel the weight of higher prices, household debt, and high interest rates, even if their overall situation has improved.

Voters are expressing this frustration in their choices. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant who grew up supporting Lula, blames the government's mismanagement for the heavy tax burden. Tairine, a hot dog seller who previously abstained from voting, now plans to support Bolsonaro, citing a lack of visible change since Lula returned. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, says she sees Bolsonaro as a source of hope for change. Flávio Bolsonaro proposes cutting government spending and ministries while retaining some flagship welfare programs. He denies recent corruption accusations. In the first round, 33 million people did not vote, marking the highest abstention rate since 1989.

The Lula campaign is responding with high-energy street rallies, mobilizing hundreds of thousands of people, including many students. One rally in São Paulo reportedly drew about a million attendees, with aerial footage spreading widely online. Lula, now 80, has used social media to counter claims that he is past his prime, referring to himself as the king of selfies. Among the poorest voters, his welfare record remains a strong anchor for support.

In Maré, one of Rio's largest favelas, abstention was above average, but Lula still won the local vote. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning less than 300 pounds a month, praises the minimum wage increase, two days off for workers, and free essential medicines. She expresses doubt about Bolsonaro's plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang as a terrorist organization, fearing police raids similar to last year's in Rio that resulted in more than 130 deaths. Resident Andreza Dionísio cites last-minute polling station changes and a sense of hopelessness about the future as reasons for low turnout.

Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, are increasingly filling social gaps with childcare, employment advice, and food. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, says the probe is politically motivated. He notes that Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values on family and opposition to abortion. The first round appeared to be a rejection of Lula rather than a strong endorsement of his rival. Almazan fears there will never be another Lula. The outcome may depend on whether voters believe Lula can offer Brazil a new story.