Knesset Strategy: Eisenkot seeks 58-seat minority cabinet as rivals demand majority

The opposition camp is preparing for the possibility of governing Israel with fewer than the standard 61 seats, a plan that has drawn sharp criticism from two of its most prominent leaders.

Gadi Eisenkot, the former defense minister and current Yesh Atid leader, proposes that if his parties win 58 or 59 seats, they should form a minority government. This approach relies on the legal distinction that a confidence vote requires a majority of votes cast, not an absolute majority of the Knesset. Under this scenario, abstentions from other parties could allow a new cabinet to take office before seeking to expand its parliamentary support. Eisenkot rejects serving under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even in a rotational arrangement, and views this path as the most viable option to end the current political deadlock.

The proposal has not been welcomed across the board. Avigdor Liberman, head of Yisrael Beytenu, categorically opposes any minority or transitional government. He insists that any new administration must include a clear Zionist majority from the start and states that another election is preferable to a cabinet that does not meet his conditions. Similarly, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who lead the Beyachad list, demand a government that does not rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties. Bennett views himself as a natural candidate for the premiership due to his prior experience, creating a leadership rivalry with Eisenkot, who hopes to head the largest party in the bloc.

Recent polls indicate that the anti-Netanyahu camp is ahead of the outgoing coalition in most surveys. However, the Zionist parties seeking change currently fall short of the 61 seats required to govern under their existing agreements. Conversely, the right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu is also far from a majority in many polls, though some surveys suggest they may secure enough seats. The final seat distribution will depend heavily on the electoral threshold and small shifts in voter turnout.

While party teams have begun coordinating on a shared agenda, no binding agreement exists on the details. The bloc aims to advance a state commission of inquiry into October 7, changes to conscription law, limits on the prime minister's tenure, and the repeal of certain judicial changes. Liberman additionally seeks a legal bar preventing people facing criminal charges from serving as prime minister. Obstacles remain, as not every member supports every judicial change, and a new speaker would not automatically provide a legislative majority for all proposed bills.

A secondary priority for the opposition is replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana. The bloc views this as a step that can occur before any government is formed, allowing Netanyahu's opponents to control the parliamentary agenda even if he remains head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected early in a new Knesset's term in a public vote. The opposition could draw on MKs from Arab parties to assemble a majority behind an agreed candidate. Names raised for the position include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot's list, Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list, Efrat Rayten of the Democrats, and attorney Oded Forer of Yisrael Beytenu. Liberman estimated this week that as many as one-third of outgoing coalition MKs might vote against Ohana, though they would have to do so openly.

A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman this week ended with a joint call to raise voter turnout but did not settle their disagreement on the composition of the next government. Eisenkot has not ruled out outside support from the Ra'am party, but no agreed formula exists for carrying out that cooperation. Democrats chairman Yair Golan has similarly not ruled out working with Ra'am. The bloc faces the challenge of translating polling leads into a workable governing majority while navigating internal disputes over the acceptable terms of a new administration.