Two-Thirds of Shi'ites Back State Control of Hezbollah's Arms

Recent polling data reveals a decisive preference for state authority over armed militias within a key Lebanese demographic. The results highlight a potential realignment in the political landscape.

Statistics Lebanon conducted the survey in September, interviewing eight hundred Shi'ite residents. The findings show that 66.4 percent support transferring control of Hezbollah's weaponry to the national government. This contrasts with 29.6 percent who prefer the militia retains its arsenal. Hezbollah has historically maintained that its weapons are vital for national defense against Israel. Further data from Kataeb.org, a site linked to the Christian Kataeb Party, shows that 71.1 percent of participants believe war and peace decisions should belong exclusively to the state. Only 5.9 percent favor a larger role for Hezbollah leadership in shaping the country's future.

Public confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces remains strong. Approximately 78.5 percent of respondents expressed trust in the army. Additionally, 51.1 percent identified it as the best institution to ensure long-term security, compared to just 16.5 percent who selected Hezbollah. These figures challenge the militia's traditional claim to be the primary security provider for the Shi'ite community.

Sentiment regarding recent conflicts is mixed. About 67.4 percent felt Hezbollah failed to meet its goals or achieved only partial success in the war with Israel. Over 42 percent expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about leadership and conflict outcomes. Despite this, 59.5 percent still reported some level of trust in the group, with 37.1 percent indicating a high degree of confidence. Roi Kais from KAN noted that existing support networks and the status granted to the sect continue to sustain the group, provided no other entity fills the resulting void.

Earlier data presents a sharper contrast. A May 2026 survey by Information International, cited by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, found that 87.5 percent of respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. Only 7.9 percent supported surrendering weapons, while more than 90 percent rejected ties with Israel. The discrepancy raises questions about how question wording influences outcomes. The researchers argued that the group's influence relies on social and economic networks, political power, and historical marginalization. They suggested that weakening Hezbollah requires a stronger army and financial backing from Western and Gulf states to replace its service provision.

Local signs of caution are emerging. In Tyre, residents reportedly opposed a new branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a Hezbollah-linked financial institution, fearing it could become a target in Israeli strikes. Such branches have faced attacks before. Meanwhile, the militia announced aid of up to $14,000 for families in Beirut and southern suburbs who lost primary homes, and up to $12,000 elsewhere. Following the death of Hassan Nasrallah in late 2024 and heavy destruction in southern villages during a new war in March 2026, the path to political change may depend on the state's ability to offer security and economic recovery.