Hegseth Bans Insider War Bets
Pentagon memo cites $8 million in suspicious wagers and a $410,000 soldier case that exposed military timing.
By Carolina Wood ·
Prediction markets have become a new front in the fight for military secrecy. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a memo on October 20 ordering Department of Defense personnel to stop using nonpublic information to place financial bets.
The directive targets all financial platforms, including prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi as well as traditional betting services. Hegseth stated that service members, intelligence professionals, and civilians may not make transactions based on classified or unclassified internal data.
The move follows specific financial anomalies identified by investigators. In April, a US Army soldier was arrested after using confidential details to wager on the timing of the military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The soldier’s winning bets totaled $410,000.
Broader data supports the concern about insider activity. An August report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 suspicious wallets that placed longshot bets on military markets. Those accounts collectively won $8 million.
Hegseth argued that these transactions create visible signals for hostile foreign intelligence services. He wrote that enemies can aggregate and correlate such data to anticipate American movements, targets, and timing.
"The lives of our Service members often depend on the enemy not knowing what is coming," the memo read. Hegseth added that troops deserve a force that protects them rather than one that exposes them for personal financial gain.
The memo was sent to senior Pentagon leaders, Combatant Command heads, and directors of Defense Department field activities. It emphasizes that personal financial stakes in military outcomes can compromise operational judgment and troop safety.
