Bobby Pulido Polls Ahead in Redrawn Texas 15th as Border Costs Bite

Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, currently leads Democratic support in Texas's 15th congressional district by five to six points. This advantage exists despite the district being redrawn in 2025 to give Republicans an 18-point notional majority. The race is set to be decided on November 3, 2026, in a region where political dynamics have shifted rapidly since the 2024 presidential election.

The district includes the Rio Grande Valley, an area that delivered Donald Trump a record 55 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2024. That performance was considered a historic breakthrough for a Republican presidential candidate. However, recent surveys taken since late summer show that a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas now disapprove of the president and favor Democratic candidates over Republicans.

The shift is driven largely by economic conditions and the execution of border enforcement policies. At the La Lomita Catholic Chapel, Father Roy Snipes addressed a congregation of about 30 people regarding the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Snipes, who has served the area for nearly 50 years, stated that there is no good excuse to detain and deport their neighbors. Government data obtained by the Deportation Data Project indicates that Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026, a larger share than any other state.

Local business owners report tangible impacts on their workforce. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman who leads the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to support the Democratic nominee in November. He described an acquaintance whose crew of 35 daily workers had shrunk to just four or six individuals. Guerrero argued that voters were not told how far the administration would go with its crackdowns, creating a distinction between securing the border and the method of enforcement.

Republican officials acknowledge the challenging environment. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, expects a tough race but credited the administration with securing the border. He noted that most people accept the deportation of criminals, but resistance grows when productive, law-abiding residents are targeted. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as purely a game of turnout, while Republican candidate Tano Tijerina in the neighboring 28th district admitted that national political headwinds are real.

Pulido has avoided the national party brand in his campaign, focusing instead on the local economy. He told supporters that the region is not New York or Los Angeles, emphasizing local specificities. At a local avocado festival, voters Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. Baldwin stated that the president is in control of their destiny but is not doing a very good job.

Texas was once among the busiest crossing points on the US-Mexico border, with more than 2.5 million apprehensions recorded in a single year under former President Joe Biden. Crossings are now at their lowest levels in decades, fulfilling a key promise of Trump's 2024 campaign. Despite this reduction in crossings, the cost of living remains the top concern for many voters in the district.

Republicans had hoped the 2024 shift in Hispanic voting was permanent, which motivated the early redrawing of congressional maps. If current polling holds, a swing back to Democrats could reshape races beyond the 15th district. In the state itself, such a shift could be enough to put a US Senate seat in play, a seat Democrats have not won in more than 30 years.