Ohio State's Loss Shakes Up College Football Playoff Picture
The Big Ten dropped to two teams in the expanded bracket after Oregon beat the Buckeyes, while Notre Dame and the SEC solidified their top rankings.
By Thomas Obasi ·
Ohio State fell to Oregon at home, a result that reduced the Big Ten to just two teams in the projected 24 team College Football Playoff bracket. The Buckeyes have lost five of their last 11 games, a streak that began last season. With the loss, Indiana and an undefeated UCLA became the only Big Ten teams currently projected to make the field.
The committee faces a decision on No. 4 Indiana after the Hoosiers completed a bye week. Indiana must hold its position despite results elsewhere, including Notre Dame's decisive victory over No. 1 Miami. The Hurricanes fell in their matchup, which allowed the SEC to reclaim its dominance at the top of the rankings. Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, and Kentucky all remain in the top 10, ensuring the league maintains a heavy presence in the bracket.
Notre Dame secured its spot in the field with a win over Miami. The Fighting Irish have a 92.8 percent chance of reaching the playoff, the fourth highest probability in the country. They face Boston College, SMU, and Syracuse in their final three games, with at least a 90 percent chance of winning each contest. The team is locked into the top 12, guaranteeing a bid on Selection Day.
In the Big Ten, UCLA remains the last team in the bracket despite ranking No. 8. The Bruins hold the No. 1 strength of record metric but rank 43rd in offensive efficiency. They beat Minnesota on the road, a win that boosts their chance of reaching the Big Ten title game to 68.3 percent. UCLA is the most likely to face Indiana in the conference championship, a game that will likely determine the final Big Ten playoff bid.
Texas Tech moved into the Big 12 bracket as the last team in. The Red Raiders have one loss and beat Houston and Arizona. Their inclusion is partly due to Ole Miss, LSU, and Ohio State all losing their third game this week. Texas Tech faces road trips to Oklahoma State and Baylor, with ESPN's FPI giving them less than a 50 percent chance to beat Oklahoma State. A second loss would likely end their playoff run.
Boise State stands as the leading Group of 6 contender. The Broncos defeated Colorado State 64 38 and lead all non Power 4 teams with a 63.7 percent chance of reaching the playoff. New Mexico is the next closest, with a 26.8 percent chance, but its strength of schedule ranks 109th. Boise State has at least a 76 percent chance to win its remaining games against Oregon State and San Diego State.
The SEC continues to hold five teams in the top 10. Kentucky remains in the bracket despite a loss to Tennessee, holding a 36.5 percent chance of making the field. The Wildcats play Missouri on November 21, with ESPN's FPI giving them a 38.3 percent chance to win. Ole Miss is the first team out of the SEC, with a 37.3 percent chance after a lopsided home loss to Georgia.
